The forecast said cold. What is actually happening ran above normal for three consecutive weeks, and the plan has not moved with it.

IMD’s 1 December outlook pointed to normal or below-normal minimums and more cold-wave days. From 15 October to 17 December, north-west India ran both maximum and minimum above normal on twelve mostly weak western disturbances.IMD press release 1 Dec 2025; analysis of IMD data, Dec 2025.
The tell in Q3 FY26 was the gap: primary muted, secondary positive. Shoppers were still buying; the trade was holding stock the season had not pulled.Dabur Q3 FY26 quarterly update.
That distinction is the whole decision. A shift moves volume into January. A cut removes it. Call it wrong and every downstream decision inherits the error.