Your distribution book, shown as a P&L you can move — this quarter, this summer.
Reroute Q3 summer spend off the chocolate lines. Recover €100K in margin.
Spring Impulse Q2 closed 4 GP points below plan — the heat-sensitive chocolate lines (Ferrero Rocher, Kinder 8-pack) missed in the early-summer heat while the impulse lines held. Three modeled actions recover most of the gap on the same Q3 spend, across Konzum, Plodine and Spar. The Konzum Q3 brief locks Friday.
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Good morning, Srećko. Spring Impulse Q2 closed at 20.0% GP — 4 points below plan, the early-summer chocolate slide. The Q3 recovery is already modeled. Ask me anything, or start with one of these:
Toggle the moves. Watch Q3 GP recover in real-time.
Three modeled actions. Each one carries a quantified GP-point and margin impact, evidenced against 14 prior Konzum confectionery promos. Select the combination to approve — the projection updates as you toggle.
Spring Impulse lost 4.0 GP points. We recover 2.0 on unchanged Q3 spend — and we state exactly why not all of it: of the 2.4-point summer-mix loss, roughly 1.0 is structural — once the heat passes, some chocolate demand does not return this quarter at the current price ladder. The remaining ~0.4 needs new budget or a price-architecture change, which is a Phase 2 conversation, not a free Q3 fix.
Any vendor who tells you a reroute recovers the full four points is selling a forecast, not a fact. We quote the 2.0 that is real on spend you have already committed — and we name the rest honestly.
Q3 Recovery Model
Each action toggles independently. Confidence is based on 14 prior Konzum confectionery promos. Same Q3 spend, across Konzum, Plodine and Spar.
The Q3 summer category recovers €100K margin on unchanged Q3 spend — €84K on the distribution book, plus €16K from making the transfer-price buffer transparent, which also lifts the brand P&L. Effect: +0.20% on category P&L, funded entirely by reallocation. Zero incremental budget. High confidence on the €84K; the €16K needs Finance sign-off.
| SKU | Spend | Plan units | Actual units | Sell-through | GP% Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orbit Spearmint 14g EAN 4009900417600 · Wrigley · impulse | €96,000 | 240,000 | 268,400 | 111.8% | +2.0 | Over |
| Tic Tac Mint 49g EAN 8000500003787 · Ferrero · impulse | €48,000 | 120,000 | 132,300 | 110.3% | +1.5 | Over |
| Kinder Bueno T2 43g EAN 8000500310427 · Ferrero · choc | €72,000 | 180,000 | 177,800 | 98.8% | −1.0 | In line |
| Kinder Chocolate 4-pack 50g EAN 8000500037270 · Ferrero · choc | €48,000 | 120,000 | 108,900 | 90.8% | −2.0 | Slight |
| Kinder Chocolate 8-pack 100g EAN 8000500179000 · Ferrero · choc | €120,000 | 300,000 | 248,200 | 82.7% | −6.0 | Under |
| Ferrero Rocher T16 200g EAN 8000500247792 · Ferrero · choc | €144,000 | 360,000 | 297,600 | 82.7% | −6.0 | Under |
| + 15 SKUs within tolerance | — | — | — | — | — | In line |
Two SKUs carry the entire miss — Ferrero Rocher T16 (€144K, −6.0) and Kinder Chocolate 8-pack (€120K, −6.0), both heat-sensitive chocolate, both Under in the early-summer heat. The two Over SKUs — Orbit (+2.0) and Tic Tac (+1.5) — are impulse lines that held through the same window. The shopper still bought at the till; they switched away from melting chocolate.
Recommended move: reroute €600K of Q3 summer spend off the chocolate lines into Orbit & Tic Tac at their proven summer sell-through, across Konzum, Plodine and Spar. +1.3 GP pts +€64K margin · same Q3 budget · high confidence (14 prior promos).
Plodine Q3 chocolate launches in 14 days. The pattern matches Spring Impulse Q2.
Plodine's Q3 promo plan repeats the SKU mix that lost margin at Konzum. Without adjustment, the same volume mix shift recurs. €84K is at risk.
Plodine chocolate Q3 trending to miss plan by 6.2 GP points
Why we're flagging this. The Plodine Q3 plan repeats the same SKU mix that lost margin at Konzum — Ferrero Rocher is again the top-budget SKU. Without adjustment, the same volume mix shift recurs.
Wholesale chocolate price up 2.1% at the Zagreb DC
Action required. Decide pass-through to retail vs distributor absorption before the Q3 promo brief locks. The chocolate lines are most exposed — Ferrero Rocher, Kinder 8-pack and Kinder 4-pack touched.