Atlantic Distribution · DU Croatia · Konzum · Brief · Daily P&L · powered by CalvinBall
Simulation · public-filings basis
ZSE: ATGR·FY2025 rev €1.19B·EBIT margin −237bps·Principal book 27.8% of sales

Your distribution book, shown as a P&L you can move — this quarter, this summer.

Konzum · Plodine · Spar — one summer category 16 DCs · 1,000+ vehicles · 70,000 POS Principals: Ferrero · Wrigley · Nivea · Haleon Sits above SAP · BI · trade-promo
The mandate · DU Croatia · representative brief

"Do not show me another channel dashboard. Show me the specific moves — which SKU, which retailer, which fee line — that recover trade margin this summer without asking me for more budget."

— illustrative of the Markets & Distribution mandate (S. Nakić, GVP) · figures representative

▴ Calvinball found

Three trade moves. +2.0 GP pts. €100K margin. Same Q3 budget.▸ trace

Channels: Konzum · Plodine · Spar Book: DU Croatia · modern trade Category: Summer confectionery · Ferrero & Wrigley
Today's recommended action

Reroute Q3 summer spend off the chocolate lines. Recover €100K in margin.

Spring Impulse Q2 closed 4 GP points below plan — the heat-sensitive chocolate lines (Ferrero Rocher, Kinder 8-pack) missed in the early-summer heat while the impulse lines held. Three modeled actions recover most of the gap on the same Q3 spend, across Konzum, Plodine and Spar. The Konzum Q3 brief locks Friday.

Open the modeler +2.0 pts Projected Q3 GP recovery
The summer category is decided by October. Everyone bets on the season; right now only this console knows where the €100K sits. The Konzum Q3 brief locks Friday — after that, the reroute is a Q4 conversation.
Revenue€1.68M▼ €240K · −12.5% vs plan
Gross Margin20.0%▼ 4.0 pts vs plan
GP Dollars€336K▼ €124K vs plan
Units Sold1.05M▼ 152K · −12.7% vs plan
Daily GP% · Apr 14 – Jun 8 · the early-summer slide8-week window · Konzum modern trade · daily POS scan
28%24%20%16% PLAN PLODINE REPEATS THISPROMO IN Q3 · €84K AT RISK Apr 14Apr 28May 12May 26Jun 8
POS scan · GS1 barcodes · Konzum data feed · refresh every 4hBrief generated automatically · no human compilation
How to use Ask

Type a question. Get a specific sales initiative, not a chart.

Ask answers in plain language with cited evidence and a recommended action — not a chart. Try a suggested question or type your own, in English or Croatian.

Avg. answer time 8s vs 3-day manual analyst loop
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Calvinball Ask · ready

Good morning, Srećko. Spring Impulse Q2 closed at 20.0% GP — 4 points below plan, the early-summer chocolate slide. The Q3 recovery is already modeled. Ask me anything, or start with one of these:

Ask →
Action Impact Modeler · interactive

Toggle the moves. Watch Q3 GP recover in real-time.

Three modeled actions. Each one carries a quantified GP-point and margin impact, evidenced against 14 prior Konzum confectionery promos. Select the combination to approve — the projection updates as you toggle.

Current projection 22.0% +€100K · all 3 actions selected
Q2 diagnosis · plan → actual · GP% decompositionVolume mix · cost creep · cannibalisation
26%24%22%20%18% 24.0%PLAN −2.4VOLUMEMIX SHIFT −1.2DISPLAY FEEOVERAGE −0.4PLODINECANNIBAL. 20.0%ACTUAL
Anchor values
Margin loss drivers
▴ Recovery ceiling · read before the model

Spring Impulse lost 4.0 GP points. We recover 2.0 on unchanged Q3 spend — and we state exactly why not all of it: of the 2.4-point summer-mix loss, roughly 1.0 is structural — once the heat passes, some chocolate demand does not return this quarter at the current price ladder. The remaining ~0.4 needs new budget or a price-architecture change, which is a Phase 2 conversation, not a free Q3 fix.

Any vendor who tells you a reroute recovers the full four points is selling a forecast, not a fact. We quote the 2.0 that is real on spend you have already committed — and we name the rest honestly.

Q3 Recovery Model

Each action toggles independently. Confidence is based on 14 prior Konzum confectionery promos. Same Q3 spend, across Konzum, Plodine and Spar.

Projected Q3 GP%
22.0%↑ from 20.0% baseline
Margin recovery: +€100KGP pts: +2.0Base: €5.0M Q3 summer categorySpend: Unchanged
▴ Change a premise — watch the plan re-derive
Reroute €600K summer spend off heat-sensitive chocolate (Ferrero Rocher T16, Kinder 8-pack) → impulse (Orbit, Tic Tac)
Channels: Konzum · Plodine · SparWindow: Q3 summerMechanic: Heat-resilient impulse switch
GP Δ+1.3 ptsMargin+€64KUnits+160K
● High · 14 promos
Evidence. 14 confectionery promos in Konzum over 18 months. In summer windows the impulse lines (Orbit, Tic Tac) beat plan by 8–14% units while heat-sensitive chocolate missed 12–22%. Pattern holds at p < 0.05.
Cap Konzum display fees at €0.08/unit in Q3 contract
Channel: KonzumSpend line: In-store activationMechanic: Contractual cap
GP Δ+0.4 ptsMargin+€20KRiskNone
● High · contractual
Evidence. Q2 display fees ran €0.094/unit blended — 18% above the €0.08 quote. Capping across the Q3 planned units recovers the overage directly. Must be in the Q3 Konzum contract before signature.
Make the Cockta transfer-price buffer transparent — one move, recovers both P&Ls
Flow: Own brand → own distributorP&Ls: Brand SBU + DistributionMechanic: Transfer-price reset
GP Δ+0.3 ptsDistribution margin+€16KBrand P&Lalso up
● Med · finance sign-off
Evidence. Cockta is sold to your own distributor at an agreed internal price. Funds move between the brand SBU and Distribution, creating an opaque buffer where no single P&L owner sees the true margin. Resetting it to the optimum recovers €16K on the distribution side and lifts the brand SBU at the same time — the move no distribution-only vendor can make. Needs Finance sign-off, not a forecast.
▴ CFO summary · one line

The Q3 summer category recovers €100K margin on unchanged Q3 spend€84K on the distribution book, plus €16K from making the transfer-price buffer transparent, which also lifts the brand P&L. Effect: +0.20% on category P&L, funded entirely by reallocation. Zero incremental budget. High confidence on the €84K; the €16K needs Finance sign-off.

SKU-level evidence · drill from any waterfall bar5 SKUs explain 80% of the variance · 16 within tolerance
SKUSpendPlan unitsActual unitsSell-throughGP% ΔVerdict
Orbit Spearmint 14g EAN 4009900417600 · Wrigley · impulse€96,000240,000268,400111.8%+2.0Over
Tic Tac Mint 49g EAN 8000500003787 · Ferrero · impulse€48,000120,000132,300110.3%+1.5Over
Kinder Bueno T2 43g EAN 8000500310427 · Ferrero · choc€72,000180,000177,80098.8%−1.0In line
Kinder Chocolate 4-pack 50g EAN 8000500037270 · Ferrero · choc€48,000120,000108,90090.8%−2.0Slight
Kinder Chocolate 8-pack 100g EAN 8000500179000 · Ferrero · choc€120,000300,000248,20082.7%−6.0Under
Ferrero Rocher T16 200g EAN 8000500247792 · Ferrero · choc€144,000360,000297,60082.7%−6.0Under
+ 15 SKUs within toleranceIn line
▴ The read → the move

Two SKUs carry the entire miss — Ferrero Rocher T16 (€144K, −6.0) and Kinder Chocolate 8-pack (€120K, −6.0), both heat-sensitive chocolate, both Under in the early-summer heat. The two Over SKUs — Orbit (+2.0) and Tic Tac (+1.5) — are impulse lines that held through the same window. The shopper still bought at the till; they switched away from melting chocolate.

Recommended move: reroute €600K of Q3 summer spend off the chocolate lines into Orbit & Tic Tac at their proven summer sell-through, across Konzum, Plodine and Spar. +1.3 GP pts +€64K margin · same Q3 budget · high confidence (14 prior promos).

Phase 2Signal is the forward-looking radar — flags margin risk before promotions launch. Available once Phase 1 Why validates on your data. Active monitors · 7 SKUs · 3 retailers
Most urgent forward signal

Plodine Q3 chocolate launches in 14 days. The pattern matches Spring Impulse Q2.

Plodine's Q3 promo plan repeats the SKU mix that lost margin at Konzum. Without adjustment, the same volume mix shift recurs. €84K is at risk.

Available before launch +€84K Recoverable if we act now
High priority · margin at risk
Promo launch in14 days

Plodine chocolate Q3 trending to miss plan by 6.2 GP points

Projected GP%
18.8%
Margin at risk
€84K

Why we're flagging this. The Plodine Q3 plan repeats the same SKU mix that lost margin at Konzum — Ferrero Rocher is again the top-budget SKU. Without adjustment, the same volume mix shift recurs.

Medium priority · pricing drift
Detected3 days ago

Wholesale chocolate price up 2.1% at the Zagreb DC

SKUs affected
6
Q3 GP impact
−0.8 pts

Action required. Decide pass-through to retail vs distributor absorption before the Q3 promo brief locks. The chocolate lines are most exposed — Ferrero Rocher, Kinder 8-pack and Kinder 4-pack touched.

90-day forward radar · all modern trade3 active alerts · 7 watch items · last refresh 06:32
TODAY Jun 11Jul 11Aug 11Sep 11 Plodine Q3€84K AT RISK DC transfer prices ↑ 2.1% Konzum Q3 brief deadline+38 DAYS Spar HR activation Q4 master plan lockPLANNING
High priority
Medium · monitor
Planning window
Watch only
Simulation · Distribution Unit · Croatia modern trade · Konzum · Plodine · Spar · representative figures Brief · Ask · Why now · Signal Phase 2 · Atlantic × CalvinBall
▴ Action confirmed
Atlantic Intelligence
Operational context · active
▴ Executive takeaway
Spring Impulse Q2 closed at 20.0% GP, 4 points below plan — the early-summer chocolate slide. The Q3 recovery is modeled — +€100K margin on the same spend. Ask me about the data, the actions, or the Q3 brief.
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